Omnipresent in the modern news cycle is the popularity poll. At one time restricted to being a not entirely accurate predictor of upcoming election results, the poll takers have expanded their purview to include almost every issue and aspect of current events, as a form of taking the nation’s “vital signs”. In a popularity contest such as an election, a popularity poll would seem a reasonable exercise to forecast a probable result. On the other hand, polling the public’s approval of social movements such as the Tea Party, or Occupy Wall Street, does little to predict the effects of those movements…
The media has told us for months now how unpopular the Tea Party is, and yet it would seem to have been largely responsible for the overwhelming Republican victories of 2010, and further, in setting the agenda for lawmakers in the newly found attention given to budget cutting and debt reduction. Likewise with the OWS movement; regardless of how popular or unpopular the movement becomes, its daily presence on the evening news will help set the agenda for debate in the coming months. The more outlandish and violent the protests become, the more the nations attention will be captivated by the movement… it will be outright rejected, or incrementally endorsed, but it will not be ignored.
Occupy Wall Street was quite popular at first as people projected their own grievances onto the little understood movement. Democratic politicians rallied behind the movement as a type of “Anti-Tea Party”. As the movement has persisted, and the reports of drug-use, “woodstock” type environment, thefts, rapes, suicide, violence, anti-semitism and public defecation, along with the inconveniencing of the public by shutting down bridges, stinking up parks, and the threat of riots and terrorist tactics; the popularity of the movement is declining in the polls. Now this presents an interesting dilemma to those politicians who have attempted to co-opt this movement. As the Republicans co-opted the Tea Party, generally to their political advantage, the Dems had hoped to hitch their wagon to this even more popular movement. There is a danger with associating yourself with a movement… movements move!
The Tea Party people for the most part were middle aged people with jobs, along with not a few retirees. Not the type you normally would see at a protest, and certainly not the type to spend weeks sleeping in a tent. They came, said their piece (albeit sometimes in bizarre ways), and then went back to their jobs and middle-class homes (taking their trash with them). The OWS crowd is primarily a youth movement, and as with all youth movements, the true believers are greatly diluted with those who are just there for the fun. While this swells the numbers and is impressive at the first; given enough time, the rabble soon becomes a millstone around the neck of the movement. Trash piles up, as does sewage; hormones flow freely, youthful rebellion rages, civility not yet learned, violence breaks out… the occupiers haven’t really got as powerful reasons to end their protests as did the Tea Partiers… they don’t have lives to get back to, these happenings have become their lives! Many assumed that as the weather became chilly, the protests would dwindle; but the draw of the gatherings, along with outside funding and american ingenuity has made it clear that “dwindling” is not something the protestors intend to do.
This presents a problem for the politicians who have endorsed the movement. Shifting all blame for the poor economy onto the wealthy “1%” blends well with the strategy for restoring Democrat dominance in the 2012 election. So inasmuch as the OWS folks have reinforced that idea, they have served the politicians well. The problem is that the longer the movement hangs around the more their ideas are crystallized, and the less mainstream they appear. Couple some of the outrageous behavior making its way to YouTube, with the often socialist rhetoric being spouted by the more coherent proponents of the movement, and OWS begins to be like a friend you don’t want to be seen with. Unfortunately, it is hard to disconnect yourself from a movement without appearing naive, and offending the friends of that movement. So these politicians have a situation, and the way to handle situations in the political world is to squash them. In a matter of hours we have seen what seems to be a coordinated effort to shut down these protests (largely by Democratic administrations) in one city after another. Time will tell if the OWS folks will allow themselves to be squashed, and to what ends the politicians will go to shut them down… in these days of social networking and hydra type organizations, the powers that be may have bit off more than they can chew, and helped create a beast they cannot tame.
While I disagree with your depiction of the Occupy movement, you brought up an interesting point, i.e. the pathetic attempt by some influential Democrats (and Republicans) to publicly express their support for the movement, hoping it will have a positive impact on upcoming elections. This said, there are some fundamental differences between the Tea Party movement in the U.S. and OWS. First of all, the Occupy movement is global while the Tea Party is a national phenomenon. Focusing on the U.S., OWS protesters call for systemic change. The movement has been criticised for not having a comprehensive political “program” but that’s exactly the point. Consequently, the movement refuses to be hijacked by the Democratic Party. In fact, OWS protesters frequently call for the abolishment of the two-party system as they feel that it would open the door to deeper systemic change. The Tea Party movement, on the other hand, has been intertwined with the GOP from the very beginning. Its criticism has never been systemic and it has never been interested in fundamental change. It has never questioned the legitimacy of free-market capitalism, to the contrary.
Back to the question of how these movements will affect upcoming elections: I believe that the Tea Party has become a political liability for the GOP and that many influencial Republicans are hoping that Mitt Romney will make it through the primaries (chances are good considering his competition). If he doesn’t, many moderate Republicans could end up voting for Obama. As far as OWS goes, the movement is here to stay and these are very exciting times for anyone who believes that there are better alternatives to global capitalism. I don’t think OWS will have much of an impact on the upcoming presidential election since it is not a policical movement that can be properly categorized within the existing political landscape dominating the media.
I’m Glad this is called opinion, because your assessment of OWS is full of half truths. I’m could guess, like many, your view is being shaped by corporate media. But I want to tell your readers and yourself that honest opinions should be shaped by the honest facts, and you are not getting them on CCN, FOX, or NBC, go to the source at occupywallst.org, look for your self what we’re about. I’ve worked down there part time myself. There was never bad smells because we clean, people aren’t blocked from using the park because we leave paths open and plan streets, its the police that restrict. The cameras of the big networks show our drum circle and suddenly we’re Woodstock? Some of us smoke an thus we’re drug using layabouts? And where’s the fun in marching, yelling and then getting beaten by cops? Getting my say in government is not fun, its hard work. And these Dems supporting us? Who are they, I haven’t seen them, unless you mean the ones already on the left fringe. This feels like a losing battle, people, smart savy people like you who represent us as “the guy you don’t want the stand next to” Yes there are strange, even unbalanced people with us, but it can’t stop me from wanting democracy back, and yea, that will take some socialism, but its the kind people already accept when they take workers comp; personal rights must not be surrendered for this to happen, only strengthened. But check what you see and use more angles, you will see we aren’t hurting anyone, costing anyone money or throwing in with Dems who are as bought as any conservative is. Stop seeing red and blue and see corporate power and people power. We move counter to the current system and for that they should be wary, you are right. But people in power on their high horse forget we are people to be reasoned with, not bullied or shut-upped. We offer deals to work with the city and redress greavences but they have given us the baton and mace in response.
Arch guy:
Thanks for your input. Believe me, I am fully aware of how distorted media reports of protests can be, having seen these distortions first hand. I have investigated the Occupywallstreet.org website before and re-visited it due to your comment. The blog entry was not intended as a criticism of the movement as much as an investigation into the dynamics of what was happening with the attempted evictions, and what to expect in the future. Compared with Obama’s response to the Tea Party, I would have to consider his initial remarks as an endorsement, as well as the former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee Debbie Wasserman Schultz. These are hardly fringe politicians, but neither would I say they are “supporting” your movement, so much as trying to co-opt it. To a much greater extent than the Tea Party has become a thorn in the side of establishment Republicans, OWS has the potential to be seen as a serious threat to establishment Democrats, a movement to be controlled or terminated, and I am concerned for the safety of all involved.
tsc:
There are of course, Tea Party movements across the globe: Italy, New Zealand, Italy, Germany, Israel, Australia…., but your point is well taken. The Tea Party began in the US with Rick Santelli’s rant from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and has continued to concern itself almost entirely with US specific issues. Though its success has inspired movements to spring up in other countries, it is not my impression that most segments of the Tea Party have actively sought to export the movement to other countries, being more intent to continue the process in their own back yard.
The OWS origins are global in nature, if not directly attributable to the Canadian AdBusters, certainly inspired by Arab protests and European ideas that have been represented in the US for more than a century, but have never been a major part of the mainstream of political thought here. But I guess that was one of the points of the blog; this whole concept of systemic change to date is not something that has been clearly communicated to those outside (or possibly some even within) the movement. Joe public is all for not having a $5 charge on his debit card… but obliterating his Wal-Mart? I’m not sure this “fundamental change” is one that will resonate with most Americans once it is clearly expressed by its proponents. To the extent the protestors can avoid actually coming out and expressing their goals,
or can moderate those goals to be more in keeping with American values, they may enjoy some extended popularity, but again, popularity is not a gauge of effectiveness. Before the movement can be deemed successful it will need to result in something beyond making noise, shutting down bridges, and occupying things.