It’s been said that “talk is cheap”, but President Obama’s simple statement regarding his endorsement of same sex marriage netted him over a million dollars in the 90 minutes that followed it, and probably an additional five million at the George Clooney fundraiser a day later. That’s a pretty hefty payoff for simply stating a position which despite stating the opposite in the last election, supporters and opponents all but assumed he held anyway.
If you are of the opinion that Presidential candidates will take a principled position independent of politics in an election year, then this probably isn’t a blog you’re going to enjoy… but I do have a bridge I’d be willing to sell you! Only the true believers and kool-aid drinkers lack the intellectual honesty to fail to acknowledge that this is a risky political move. His former position that his views were “evolving” on the subject was the far safer place to be. It was clearly code for saying without saying that he was leaning away from his earlier politically expedient position, and that same sex marriage proponents could expect his support in his second term. Most expected his “evolution” to be complete around a week after the election. So this begs the question… why now?
Some have said that the Joe Biden “gaffe” focused attention on the issue, and forced Obama to come out (forgive the cheap pun) ahead of schedule. Joe’s not a stranger to gaffes, but this did not seem spontaneous. It was well thought out, and He seemed to be a man on a mission. It has been said that Biden was trying to insure that he would not be replaced on the ticket, but that too would have been a risky move, and this hypothesis seems a little far fetched to me. Utilizing Occam’s razor, the simplest explanation is also the most obvious… follow the money.
Wall Street support has been very sparse this go round for Obama; turns out “fat cats” don’t appreciate being demonized, ridiculed and threatened… who knew? So this is leaving the Obama fundraising efforts coming up short of expectations set by his miraculous effort last time, and the power of his incumbency. Besides the obvious fact that money wins elections, there is the more subtle effect of perceptions; and a candidate not meeting fundraising expectations creates the impression of weakening, and that becomes a slippery snowball. Another revenue source needed to be found, and the speed with which the donations came in would seem to indicate the withholding of the funds, and a probable pre-arranged deal.
Of course, the move is not without possible pitfalls. Although the nation is virtually split in polls on the subject, many of those pro-gay marriage votes are concentrated in New England, New York, and California; certain blue states to begin with. Many of the battleground states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia are much less likely to endorse the President’s epiphany. In a bizarre twist on vote selling, Obama seems to be trading potential votes in states he needs to win for the money he desperately needs to try to buy them back. Key support groups in the black and latino communities are among the least likely to agree with the President’s new found position. These are votes Obama needs in large numbers, and he is gambling that he can get them for free despite their traditional values on this subject, simply because he is not a Republican.
The gamble may indeed pay off for the President, but it is still obviously a gamble; and except for the money, why take the chance? It’s a little like pulling your goalie in hockey, or going for the hail mary pass in football, you only gamble like that if you think you’re losing. Whatever inside polling and information the Obama team has seen seems to have led them to the belief that they needed to change the dynamics of the election. The economic forecast is probably gloomy, and with Romney’s reputation as an economic wizard the slogan from the Clinton election: “It’s the economy, stupid!” has been turned on it’s ear for the Dems in this cycle to: “Anything but the economy, stupid!” Having lost the “hope” in “Hope and Change”, the President is gambling that he can substitute an extra helping of “change” to divert attention from his record.
