Sometimes people can’t separate their political ideologies from an objective analysis of what is happening. None of us is immune from the influence of our political leanings; so when I took a little heat a few weeks back for suggesting that the President’s election strategy going forward would be to divide the electorate into groups to avoid a “consensus defeat” on the basis of the universal issue of the economy, I withheld a response lest I was being unfair to the President by imagining a strategy that wasn’t there.
Given this week’s turn of events with President Obama’s blatantly political announcement regarding his executive order on immigration, I think I can rest that the original analysis was in fact accurate. The prediction from the blog post “A House Divided” concerning the next action Obama would take in attempting to distract from the economy read:
“…I would expect the next group to be targeted to be the hispanic vote, probably by revisiting the Dream Act, or some sort of immigration initiative…”
This has nothing to do with whether the action is a good idea, or whether it would have been a better idea had it been addressed legislatively when the Democrats controlled Congress. Clearly regardless of the effects this has on immigration policy, the action was taken for one reason only, political expediency. Expect Romney to continue to respond to the move non-commitally for the same reason, political expediency. It will continue to be Obama’s strategy to put his community organizing experience to good use by dividing the electorate into groups and sub-groups and identifying why the Republican party is antagonistic to each of those groups. Romney on the other hand, will seek to avoid dividing the electorate, trying to demonstrate how the current administration has failed the country as a whole.
The immigration ploy, like the same sex marriage endorsement, is a risky tactic. the reason immigration never gets addressed legislatively is because it’s such a hot button issue, and the President is risking losing support from other groups to shore up favor with hispanic voters. If not a desperate move, it at least indicates an “all in” strategy on the President’s part as he continues to take positions on controversial issues that he himself has avoided in the past.
Romney will continue to try to drag the dialogue back to the economy. How much success he will have in doing this will generally depend on how poorly the economy fares. If economic news continues to be dismal, expect Obama to continue to need to distract and divide. Where does he go from here? The rich versus poor diatribes only play well with a limited portion of the electorate, one that is generally already loyal to the left. Likewise, he probably won’t need to do a thing to maintain support among black voters. Do not be surprised to see the Whitehouse cast its gaze toward the potentially massive youth vote. The precedent of using executive orders to endow benefits on various groups is a powerful campaign tool. It enables the President to circumvent Congress where he is not likely to find much cooperation at this point; it allows him to utilize massive amounts of cash independent of that derived from his record-breaking fundraising events; and it carries with it the implied threat of a loss of those benefits should the President cease to be president.
IMHO: This is political warfare at it’s highest level; it’s not pretty. If my observations intrude upon some fantasy the reader has of their candidate riding a white horse, or a unicorn, I beg your pardon. There may well be principles and core values that each candidate possesses, but until November 6 it’s all about what gets them money and votes.
Great observations and even greater insight into political warfare. Haven’t both parties and the president learned buying votes and catering to special interest is the reason our republic is into the current political meltdown? I think I speak on behalf of the majority of voting Americans that long for leaders that once again would put their country before partisan politics. I believe putting one’s own political interest before their country would be considered unpatriotic; nowadays it seems to be the norm.
Political warfare was never my favorite subject, but I enjoyed reading your opinions. I think it’s interesting how everyone can have their own idea about this subject, but what I am hoping for is authenticity and the better good for everyone.
@youth ministry… : “The better good” is probably something almost everyone is hoping for, the rub is how they define what that is! Surprised to find someone digging this far back in the archives! Looking forward to your comments on more recent posts. Obama is stepping up his presence on college campus venues; I expect that to continue, along with a renewed effort to energize minority voters, which I didn’t entirely expect, and which is due to a widening enthusiasm gap. It might take the form of something more than rhetoric.