Just over a week ago Mitt Romney surprised everyone by naming Paul Ryan as his choice for a running mate. The pick was a surprise on a few levels. It was early. Veep choices usually come just a few days before the convention. It was timed unusually. Releasing an announcement on Friday night is usually reserved for bad news that you want to keep out of the main news cycle for a couple of days; and no one expected the announcement to come while everyone was still watching the Olympics. The pick was not the safe, boring one that all the pundits were forecasting (though Ryan is, admittedly, “a white guy”).
One political gift Romney seems to have is timing. The early announcement seems to have come at a time when his campaign was bogging down somewhat with what appears to be the only barbs the Obama campaign seems to be connecting with in any way; the Bain Capital “job killer/wife killer” strategy, and the “rich guy’s secret tax returns”, which may in the end turn out to be Romney playing the part of Brer Rabbit in the briar patch. The announcement has certainly changed the dialogue.
Why on a Friday? It looks as though the announcement was released to give Ryan a couple of days to define himself before the liberal media types and the Obama spin doctors could get their motors running; kind of like jumping the gun to get a running head start. The strategy has been effective thus far, as Romney could not have hoped for better results with this controversial of a candidate.
What happened to Portman or Pawlenty? Polls are hard to trust at this point because for the most part they weight similarly people likely to vote and people not likely to, because it’s hard to discriminate between the two. That said, had Romney believed that the election was in the bag, he probably would have selected a “do no harm” candidate like Portman or Pawlenty… (as Obama did with his choice). The fact that he chose the more controversial Ryan indicates one of two things (or possibly both): He feels it is a close race, and his ticket needs someone a little less bland; or he is looking past the election toward who has the skill set necessary to help him govern. His choice of Ryan is Romney’s way of saying, “It’s still the economy, stupid!”
Overall the week has been a good one for Ryan. Taking the chief charge of his opponents of “messing up medicare” (remember Granny in the wheelchair?), he has flipped the issue in what has become the trademark jiujitsu political maneuvering of the Romney campaign to make it work in his favor. The Obama campaign seems to have received what they were supposedly salivating for, and appear to be completely unprepared for it. Joe Biden couldn’t have provided a better foil for Ryan with gaffes that would certainly have elicited whispers concerning senility if Joe was a conservative. I think they’ve safely locked him away for now, and I don’t expect to hear from Biden for a couple of weeks… how will they handle the V.P. debates? Don’t expect more than one.
It’s a little tough on the Dems this time around, because Ryan can’t be typically cast, as they are wont to, as stupid. Indeed he speaks as though he has a clearer handle on budget issues than anyone in the country. He’s not ugly, so that’s out. Catholic, but not evangelical nutty (or “gasp”…Mormon!), so they can’t go after him on that, he’s conservative but not “Tea-Party” crazy, so that’s a long shot. He seems reasonable, cogent, well spoken, energetic, principled and genuine… that’s it… he’s the anti-christ, an “evil genius”! The Dems will have to paint him as an extremist, and a dangerous one because he’s an extremist with a powerful intellect. They will need to stay away from direct confrontations with him (“don’t look in his eyes!”), and strike instead from the relative safety of the shadows of demagoguery.
IMHO: Romney seems to be receiving the predictable bump in the polls from the announcement of Ryan, but remember that these bumps are generally short-lived and polls are difficult to trust at this point. What is more difficult to measure, but likely more significant, is the enthusiasm of the electorate. The Conservative base is extremely energized. The Ryan announcement drew crowds of 10,000 in both North Carolina and Wisconsin. This while reports indicate that the Dems are concerned that they might not be able to fill the venue for Obama’s convention speech. Romney’s contributions are through the roof, especially first time and small contributers. Obama’s have been disappointing. Rallies such as Glen Beck’s in Washington and Dallas, though almost unreported, are drawing tens of thousands of participants. Why even the Chik-Fil-A buy-cot drew an unbelievable level of participation of people waiting hours for a mediocre chicken sandwich, just to have their voice counted. The counter protest… not so much. Conservatives, and even some not so conservative, seem to be chomping at the bit to express a desire to move in a different direction. They are willing to go to great lengths and sacrifice to show their support, it’s not likely that five minutes at the polls will discourage them from voting. Despite reading the tea leaves, despite the economy, despite unpopular policy choices; there remains a Democratic core who would vote for Charles Manson if he were the candidate, there remains a President who is not lightly referred to as “The Campaigner in Chief”, there remains “The Chicago Way” in politics that while hardly fair is often effective… all this might say the election still might be a close one. And if it is close, the only rule is that there are no rules… Hold on to your hat Mr. Ryan, this might get rough.
If you ask me, Romney just gave away the election by picking Paul Ryan as his running mate. Even American voters aren’t so brainwashed that they would vote for somebody whose idea of fiscal responsibility equates to 4 trillion dollars in tax cuts for the wealthy over the the next 10 years “balanced” by half that amount in spending cuts carried out on the backs of every-day Americans. Not only is Ryan’s budget immoral (as the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops rightly pointed out), it is also detrimental to the U.S. economy. And besides, Romney had the conservative vote. There appears to be such a sense of urgency to remove our socialist president from office that the right, due to lack of more attractive alternatives, would have voted for Mitt Romney anyway. As far as winning the election goes, Romney should have picked a centrist running mate, preferably somebody even blander than himself. Instead of appealing to undecided voters, his only hope at beating Obama, he just scared them away. Policy aside, Romney’s pick is simply stupid. It will cost him the election just like John McCain was done the day he picked Sarah Palin.
President Obama is only a socialist if you admit that Romney, Ryan and the entire GOP are fascists.
Don’t use terms you don’t understand.
@JamesK: tsc444 is a regular commenter, and probably understands the term “socialism” more than you realize, to the point of being an advocate of the same. His comment may have confused you as his intention seemed to be that conservatives (which he is not) view Obama as socialist. A set of quotation marks might have been helpful. Your suggestion to not use terms one doesn’t understand, like “socialist” or “fascist”, is a good one, but probably not applicable for this commenter.