Releasing The Prodigal

Okay now, breathe! The disappointment of so many at the re-election of arguably one of the worst Presidents in modern history deteriorated into apoplectic hysteria and self destructive panic attacks in the days that followed. It was an election, not much different than other recent elections. The challenger lost to the incumbent by a decisive margin in the electoral college and by about 2% of the popular vote. It was not a nail-biter, but neither was it a Reagan-like landslide. Romney ran a decent campaign but, in the end, was unable to overcome being the last man standing in a field of less than inspiring Republican candidates, running against a popular if ineffective incumbent.

All manner of explanations were shouted in the cacophony that followed. Suggestions from the left that if Republicans ever want to win another election, they will need to basically become Democrats, while I’m sure well intentioned, I think can be safely ignored as, well, partisan posturing. Similar remarks from those in the GOP regarding moderating or abandoning the party’s core values to become more palatable to a changing electorate, is probably a conversation that will need to be had, but one has to ask if winning elections is worth selling your soul. Some blame Romney himself, the failure to go after Benghazi, his lack of charisma. Some fault the party, the neglecting to court the Libertarian wing, the pro-life and traditional marriage agendas. Some point the finger at the Tea-Party, Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, the obstructionism of the House. The Press is always an apt target; of course they’re biased, and the new twist is that Fox News and talk radio are somehow to blame! Then there were the demographics, more minorities, less fat old white men (I resemble that remark!), the gap with younger women. On and on, everyone has an iron in the fire, and are fully intent on attributing the GOP failure to what they wish was the cause. The truth is some of these criticisms may have some validity, sometimes the things that help you in one election hurt you in the next, likely it was a highly complex combination of many factors that amounted to a 2% shortfall.

I think the thing that drove the intense despair that seemed to seize those on the right following the election was the preceding sense that Obama was vulnerable, and that the voters were energized to oust him. Many were convinced of this even in the face of polls, which at least for the later ones, proved to be relatively accurate. I myself became reacquainted with my old friend, Humiliation, as my personal prediction missed the mark by several miles. I would argue that even most left-leaning analysts seemed less than confident in the President, as there seemed to be a lack of enthusiasm in the base for Obama, even if there was a genuine hatred for Romney. MSNBC pundits had in the last days of the campaign begun sounding tentative, and talking more and more about the undercards on the ballots. Even President Obama’s body language exuded doubt. Only the math geeks seemed pretty confident in their numbers, and have gained some credibility for future prognostications; but some of the best pollsters in previous elections were the least accurate in this one… even a broken clock is right twice a day. In the end some of the trepidation for the President’s reelection hopes seems justified. He garnered 10 million fewer votes than in his first election (that generally doesn’t happen to incumbents), while Romney got about 2 million less than McCain did in 2008. Had Romney matched the level of voter participation of McCain even, it would have been a horse race.

Ignore then the missteps of Romney and the GOP; they were matched by gaffes and errors by the President and his surrogates, errors are part of the game, and they really weren’t excessive. Romney was indeed slandered and ill treated, but politics is a contact sport, and he is a well seasoned veteran; he’ll be fine. The rifts in the nation continue, and the intentional divisiveness of the President’s campaign, the mockery and contempt that the President showed toward citizens who differed with his policies, and the crudeness with which the contest progressed from the left, have all served to exacerbate those deepening divisions. Unfortunately, when you view the vote as a tool of vengeance, it is dubious that you will be conciliatory in victory. Indeed, there have been few examples of “good winners” coming from the victor’s banquets. Good sportsmanship is just one more virtue that seems to have been lost in our nation, replaced with bullying taunts and shameless gloating. Various celebrities tweeted humorless invective against Romney after the loss, their unveiled hatred for the loser displacing the customary courtesy of not kicking a man when he’s down. Liberal pundits ridiculed him and his impertinence in challenging their chosen one, clearly jubilant in Obama’s victory, but undoubtedly even more jubilant at Romney’s defeat. Chris Matthews even went so far as to say that Hurricane Sandy was good because of the political gain for the President; echoing Richard Mourdock, was he saying that all the destruction and loss of life was “a thing that God intended”? The end result is a defeated and dejected large segment of the population who feels they have lost not a good fight, but a very bad one. They feel alienated from the man who is supposed to be their leader because of his clear disdain for them. It was the wisdom of Lincoln to reach out the hand of friendship to his vanquished enemies in the South by means of Reconstruction; I hold little hope that this President will show such wisdom, preferring to crush his foes, which will in the end likely be his undoing.

Make no mistake; elections have consequences, some of them very long lasting. Those who chose not to vote for “the lesser of two evils” will now share with the rest of us the consequences of allowing the election of “the greater of two evils”. The Supreme Court, an entire third of the US government, will tilt left for years beyond the election of this President. If SCOTUS disappoints you in years to come, remember this day, and your choice. Any thoughts of overturning Obamacare is now gone; once it is completely implemented it will be impossible to remove, and it won’t matter what it costs. Taxes will go up, first for the rich, then for the rest of us no matter how well hidden. Time will tell what other initiatives the President will be able to push through now that the election is over and he has more “flexibility”. Nonetheless, the sun will rise tomorrow, and so must we. It is time to look to the future with a greater vision than just doom and gloom; darkness serves no good purpose.

Where do we go from here? Many would say it’s time for the GOP to transform itself to accommodate for changing demographics. In particular the increase in hispanic voters, along with continuing dismal numbers among blacks and young voters signal the need for new strategies. Hitherto the Republicans have thought that parading out their hispanic, black, and woman representatives should be an effective strategy for garnering those associated voting blocks. While demonstrating that your party is inclusive, it’s a little like saying “I’ve got nothing against black people, I have friends who are black!”. Associations are no substitute for an agenda, and these voting blocks need to be reached where they live. Some would suggest that means pandering to these groups, basically offering them even more than the Democrats do, because the common denominator for these groups is that they are predominantly populated by persons at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale. Granted, that is a generalization; but it is a relatively accurate one. These are voting blocks that hope to be taken care of by government. When you are struggling, you worry about that stuff. The impression is that Democrats can be counted on to preserve the safety net, and that Republicans don’t care about poor people. A few of them may be greedy and will sell their vote to the highest bidder (which will always be the Dem), but many are just fearful, and the GOP needs to be more careful in their phrasing, and more vigorous in their outreach. Educating these blocks about the Constitution, liberty, and conservative values can be successful, as Ron Paul has shown with younger voters; but often these blocks are comprised of less sophisticated voters who just need to be reassured. As they move up educationally and economically, or as the younger grow older, they often are easier to reach, though old habits are sometimes hard to break.

Any parent that has raised a child through their teenage years into young adult-hood knows that there comes a day when you can no longer protect them from their own choices. Sometimes the only way they can learn is by going out and making their own mistakes, sometimes with disastrous and life changing results. You wish you could force them to make the right decisions, but you can’t, and you shouldn’t… their life is ultimately their own, and freedom extends to the freedom to be wrong. Republicans have tried to be the adults in the room, though often they have failed at this endeavor as well. Fiscal responsibility, conservative values, and historical perspectives are eschewed by the “hipper”, “smarter”, “younger” progressive movement. Notice has been given with this election (and other signs), that a large portion of our society, a majority of those willing to vote, would like to move in another direction. We still have the House, we can lock the door… but should we?

Like the father of the prodigal son in scripture, is it time to let them have their desire, and experience the consequences? If they are right in the direction they want to go, or if they are wrong, they are entitled to their choice. If they are misguided or deceived in their choice, it is not ours to determine for them; political choices are buyer beware, and right or wrong the majority sets the course. The prevailing opinion is that the House should do all it can to restrict the next four years and limit the damages this administration can inflict. Gridlock is our friend, ineffective government our chief ally. The President has shown a perfect willingness to ignore Congress and the Constitution, and implement his agenda via executive order, regulation, and selective enforcement of the law. He is adept at pinning his own inadequacies to convenient enemies. His first four years of failure were George Bush’s fault; that will be more difficult to sell going forward, he’ll need a new scapegoat; he’ll blame the obstructionist “extremists” in the House.

The House was retained by the Republicans because of the geographical nature of districting. Democratic support lies chiefly in urban areas, Republican in suburban and rural (just look at the county by county electoral map), and there’s just so much you can do with gerrymandering. The people in these districts elected their representatives to stand for their views, so I understand that the House members may feel they need to stand for their constituency and not for the majority of the rest of the country, but the President will exercise his political will regardless, and then blame his failure on the obstructionists in the House. I am not suggesting that representatives ever vote for legislation that their folks do not support. I am saying that it might be time to take a page out of the Obama play book and begin voting “present” on things that don’t violate the Constitution even if it seems like a bad idea. They should always make their opposition clear, but in the interest of letting the leader lead and allowing the nation to move in the direction they have chosen, they could withhold their restraining hand. To the victor goes the spoils, and if the nation has chosen its victor, might it be time for the loyal opposition to stand down?

IMHO: The reports of our death are greatly exaggerated. Every election has to have a loser, this one was not significantly different than any other, as much as so many would like to believe. Every time conservatives come up on the short end the same diatribes come out, the same insistence that conservative values are a failing hopeless core. Then the next election comes and it’s like 2010. It was only two years ago, and the Republicans had massive victories; not much conversation was proffered about how the Democrats needed to broaden their appeal to old white men or married women, or moderate their views on gay marriage or abortion rights. The pendulum swings both ways, and one might question what made such a tremendous difference in the last two elections. The “ground game” of the Democrats has been in place since 2008, why didn’t it work at all in 2010? The electorate is indeed changing demographically, but not that much in just two years. The secret of our failure might lie in our success. The President is an ideologue, and he had free reign in his first two years with a Democratic House and Senate. Instead of fixing the economy he went after left wing issues that were more important to him. The economy continued to flounder, and the opposition was energized. Moderate Americans were driven to the polls in response to an unpopular and aggressive agenda. He owned it. The election of the Republican majority in the House mitigated the President’s ability to willy-nilly push through his agenda, and the spanking he received in the election gave him pause to consider his strategy in seeking a second term. Voters memories are short, very short, and things that should have been remembered were forgotten; new scapegoats were chosen, and the President rode the public’s fear of his opponents to victory.

We are a republic governed by Constitutional principals but otherwise directed by the will of the majority. There may come a time when the majority chooses a path we know to be a wrong one, when we will need to stand aside and permit the will of the majority to run its course. This may be that time. The results of stepping aside may well be devastating, but permitting ourselves to be scapegoated as obstructionists only gives cover to hide behind as the decay continues. No action is not always better than the wrong action in times of crisis, and sometimes hitting bottom is needed before progress can begin. Not being obstructionists does not mean becoming a facilitator. We should not be expected to voluntarily support the means of our own captivity. Resistance should emanate from the people themselves, and our representatives should be released to give the President ownership of the effects of his policy. The President and the people who elected him need to learn a hard lesson, the lesson the prodigal son learned. There are Laws you cannot change. You may rule the nation, but you do not rule the Universe.