In a verbal foible that would rival W’s best, President Obama referred to himself as a “hopeless optimist” in his bon voyage speech on the impending fiscal cliff. This coming on the heels of John Boehner’s failed attempt to rally the Republicans in the House to vote for a doomed compromise bill ironically named after an emergency contraceptive, Plan B. It’s what you do when you didn’t do the right thing yesterday.
Obama’s misstatement may have been a Freudian slip, as he may indeed have no hope for a solution for the fiscal cliff, and going off that cliff might be exactly what he wants to do. It raises taxes on everyone, which would give him vast new revenues to play with. The taxes on the middle class could be rolled back in a separate bill which would be far more difficult for the Republicans to vote against (and at the same time would not violate their Norquist oaths). And however it all plays out, the Republicans come off looking like the villain.
The only downside is the economy might tank, but that may be something that is overstated, and he may be willing to take that gamble… worst case, he blames the Republicans as well. We keep saying that he can’t get away with that, but paraphrasing his campaign slogan, Obama keeps demonstrating that “YES HE CAN!”
IMHO: If averting the cliff is something the President actually wants to do, it would appear that the House Republicans are going to require even more than what Obama was already unwilling to give them. So he will either need to make some very significant compromises, or he will need to find a way to cobble together a coalition of his own supporters with a few moderate Republicans to carry the legislation past the house… likely both would be required. My guess is that he will be unwilling or unable to accomplish this in the few days remaining. If he does not choose to take the dive, what will the government do? Same thing they do everyday, kick the can down the road. Expect some emergency legislation that will buy time, maybe address a few issues like extending unemployment benefits and payroll tax cuts, and delays any final decisions on the rest for a later date; probably sometime around when the debt limit debate comes around again. Too bad they don’t make a Plan B pill for elections.