Seasons Change

We would do well in the midst of the gloomy winter to remember the words of Heraclitus: “Nothing endures but change”. The heat of summer does not abide forever, but neither will the cold of winter. Nor do the governments of men.

The renewal of spring is something we see each year, we anticipate it. The long cold winter is easier to bear because we know it is not forever; seasons change. When seasons change in the moral and ethical outlook of a nation, this renewal is called revival. When the change bleeds over into politics, it’s called revolution. America may be ripe for both.

Consider the convoluted history of the black voter in the United States. We have gone in the span of two lifetimes from blacks being denied the right to vote, along with the right to liberty or even personhood… to the emancipation proclamation put forward by a Republican president; to the 15th amendment pushed through by Republicans to assure the right of the vote for black Americans… to the highest percentage of blacks being elected to public office from 1865 to 1880 almost exclusively as Republicans, including the first black Speaker of the House… to the Democratic group of the Ku Klux Clan organized to intimidate black voters and white Republicans… to FDR and the beginning of the shift to Democratic affiliation for blacks… to Martin Luther King, a Republican, and the fight for civil rights… to the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 under LBJ, which completed the monolithic voting propensity of the black demographic that we are familiar with today. Finally, four years ago a black man was elected to the highest office in the land, President of the United States. Clearly, racism has not been eradicated, but there is no higher measure of success than the Presidency.

With success comes a whole new situation. Solidarity works better for the downtrodden than the successful. With declining adversity comes increasing diversity. Despite the hyperbole of the left, we no longer have a major political party that could in any way be referred to as “racist”. The next step in the history of the black voter was exemplified by the inspired speech by Dr. Ben Carson at the National Prayer Breakfast this week. You may remember Dr. Carson from the biographical film “Gifted Hands” where he was portrayed by Cuba Gooding Jr. Here was a sitting liberal black President listening to such conservative ideas as personal responsibility, the eschewing of voluntary victimhood and political correctness, a flat tax, and personal health savings accounts instead of socialized medicine coming from a charismatic and highly successful black doctor. This fascinating dichotomy of two very different black men is a clear demonstration of the beginning of the erosion of the monolithic black voting block.

It is inevitable. Coalitions do not last forever, particularly once they attain their goals. Habit and tradition are poor substitutes for a common cause, and the plight of black americans is less race based as it once was, so much as a socio-economic legacy that remains. As blacks, and any other minority migrate out of the lowest levels of income and education, their party affiliation will gradually become more diverse. Expect to see more of this dynamic as we proceed into the “post-racial” era that the election of President Obama has ushered in. Democrats can slow the erosion of this coveted voting block in one of two ways. They can hinder economic mobility and educational success in much the same way as slave owners prohibited slaves from learning to read and write. On the other hand, Democrats could shun their other constituencies and find ways to move poor blacks out of poverty, something their well meaning initiatives have thus far been unsuccessful in accomplishing. This would short term win the continued allegiance of those they had helped. Republicans don’t have the luxury of choice when it comes to minority votes. The only way Republicans will ever achieve a more equitable distribution of votes from these groups is by assuring their success. Successful, educated people are more difficult to “organize” into blocks based solely on their race.

IMHO: We know that times always change. We are less convinced that directions of movement do. When the nation swings left, conservatives despair that the end is near; when it swings right, liberals threaten to move to Europe. Do not look to Greece or France to augur our future, nor use the rest of the world as a template for our destiny. We are a peculiar people, and our history is replete with fluctuating politics around an exceptionally solid core. We are not a people who shrink back, or abandon our nation to failure, slavery, or tyranny. In darkness, anticipate the dawn. In decadence, revival; in tyranny, revolution. In the cold of February, anticipate the spring. Seasons change.